What are UK Government advisers seeing?

I have developed some model scenarios that show examples of what might be behind expert advice on the caution required with new SARS-Cov-2 variants. The scenarios indicate the importance of the UK vaccine programme, as we face variants with potentially different characteristics of transmission, severity of infection and responsiveness to vaccines. Understanding those variant characteristics is vital for projections.

Why the UK Government is worried about new variants

I have developed some model scenarios that show examples of what might be behind expert advice on the caution required with new SARS-Cov-2 variants. The scenarios indicate the importance of the UK vaccine programme, as we face variants with potentially different characteristics of transmission, severity of infection and responsiveness to vaccines.

Tuning the age and vulnerability model

In my latest post on March 26th I described a new Coronavirus group model, based on work I had done as a UK case study in support of Prof. Alex de Visscher’s paper, in conjunction with Dr. Tom Sutton, on “Second-wave Dynamics of COVID-19: Impact of Behavioral Changes, Immunity Loss, New Strains, and Vaccination” which has now been published for peer review as a pre-print on Springer’s site at https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-195879/v1. I have now added the latest UK vaccination progress figures, and the UK Government’s announced intentions for the near future regarding Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). I have also updated mortality and infection characteristics for the four different population groups in the model.

Age and vulnerability related Coronavirus modelling

In my most recent post on February 12th, I described modelling work I had done in support of Prof. Alex de Visscher’s paper, in conjunction with Dr. Tom Sutton, on “Second-wave Dynamics of COVID-19: Impact of Behavioral Changes, Immunity Loss, New Strains, and Vaccination” which has now been published for peer review as a pre-print on Springer’s site at https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-195879/v1. I have now added vaccination and multiple variants I had already added to our previous model into the new grouped population model, and this blog post reports on progress with that new model.

Modelling of vaccine strategies

In my most recent post on November 18th, about updating my Coronavirus model to handle the impact of vaccines, I gave some examples of how case numbers, and more specifically death rates might be improved for the UK through a vaccination programme. Now that there seem to be several vaccines imminent, with efficacies ranging from 70% (Astra-Zeneca/Oxford) through 90% (A-Z/O via a different inoculation regime, and Pfizer), to 95% (Moderna) and several others in the mix, I explore some sensitivities in more detail, and also apply the model to the USA.

Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, vaciiiine,…(don’t refuse it, just because you can)

In the news today, I read that Dolly Parton had given $1,000,000, through her Covid-19 Research Fund, to help fund the Moderna vaccine development. As The Times newspaper reported, this – erm – somewhat trumps the White House contribution to public safety. In her honour, Ryan Cordell composed and performed this ditty. The timing neatly coincides with the work I have been doing to incorporate vaccination into my Coronavirus model, and to that end I have been researching ways of modelling vaccination. I have made some appropriate changes, and run some model options for different vaccine efficacy; vaccinations per day; and date of starting the vaccination programme.

Adaptive triggering and the epidemic life-cycle

Introduction In my last post on October 21st, looking at the potential for an exit from the epidemic, I described a cyclical version of the modelling of the epidemic in the UK, reflecting outputs from Imperial College and Harvard earlier this year, which postulated a continuing cycle of partial lockdowns, easing of restrictions and upsurgesContinue reading “Adaptive triggering and the epidemic life-cycle”

Where’s the exit?

My title for this post is drawn from a slide I have shown before, from the 17th April Cambridge Conversation webinar, which I reported in my April 17th blog post, and also in my April 22nd blog post on model refinement, illustrating the cyclical behavior of the Covid-19 epidemic in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, with control of cases and deaths achieved, only to some extent, by Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs).

Some thoughts on the current UK Coronavirus position

A couple of interesting articles on the Coronavirus pandemic came to my attention this week; a recent on in National Geographic on June 26, highlighting a starting comparison of the USA’s cases history and recent spike in case numbers with European data.

This article referred to an older National Geographic piece, from March, by Cathleen O’Grady, referencing a specific chart from Katy Armstrong of the Imperial College Covid-19 Response team.

I noticed, and was interested in that reference following a recent interaction I had with that team, regarding their influential March 16th paper.

Meanwhile, my own forecasting model is still tracking published data quite well, although over the last couple of weeks I don’t think the published rate of deaths is falling as quickly as before.