Author Archives: docbrs

Official UK Coronavirus reporting ends

Introduction I have continued to run my own Coronavirus model, my recent prior report on February 9th this year having immediately followed the outbreak of the “Kraken” variant, Omicron XBB.1.5, in the UK. This brief post provides my own latest charts from my model, in the light of cessation of the UK Government’s own CovidContinue reading “Official UK Coronavirus reporting ends”

The Kraken Wakes*

I have continued to improve and run my Coronavirus model daily. The code for the model is now at version 172, and I have added a dataset to represent the variant XBB.1.5, known informally as “Kraken”. The fit of the model to reported deaths is good. I explore in the article the behaviour of Modelled vs. Reported Active Cases.

Some of my bike rides in Mallorca, Ibiza and Formentera: past, present and future

Here are some bike rides I have enjoyed in the Balearics during the last seven years. I’m looking forward to my first post-pandemic visit in October for the 6Points Ibiza and Formentera, which I last rode in the autumn of 2019, with some additional Mallorca riding before and after. Some of the following rides are on the agenda!

Omicron continues to surprise

Introduction In my most recent articles on the Omicron variants of Covid-19, I have highlighted the discrepancy between plummeting Active Cases and increasing cumulative Deaths. My model draws attention to this, by comparing the previous alignment of modelled and reported data, prior to February 24th, with the recent divergence. This post continues to summarise theContinue reading “Omicron continues to surprise”

Declining Omicron cases but increasing deaths

Something odd seems to be happening with the relationship between reported UK Covid-19 cases and deaths in the last few weeks, when deaths have been increasing somewhat more quickly than recently, but cases have declined steeply. My model charts seem to expose this oddity.