Lloyd Chapman – A rambling mind

Just as we thought it was safe to go back into the water

Chart 318 for scenario UK_17 with vaccinations. 17th May 1.8% ,19th July 1%, 1st Sep 2%, mean NPI relaxations and 30th Nov +2% and 10th Dec +3% additional NPIs. v4 transmission k11 = 3, var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS 7% and fmort 1.05%. Model outcomes to October 29th 2022. Reported active cases and deaths to December 8th. Serious cases for 4 variants.

Omicron is feared to have higher infectiousness than the Delta variant, with even greater concerns should it turn out to cause more severe symptoms, higher mortality, and possibly worst of all, if it were able to evade current Covid-19 vaccines. I have made some parametric runs of my model to assess the possible effects.

The pandemic situation in Europe

Case rates are rising in many parts of Europe. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

The pandemic situation in continental Europe has been worsening rapidly, and I felt that it I should update some country comparisons in a dedicated post.It confirms that the sourcing of data for a Coronavirus model of any given country is a very specific task nowadays, given the considerable differences in the underlying demographics, cultures, Government actions (NPIs) and public responses in the various countries.
This blog post isn’t looking at the modelling per se, but concentrates on the very different outcomes we are seeing across Europe, and looking at some of the reasons why.