Imperial College – A rambling mind

Adaptive triggering and the epidemic life-cycle

Chart 11 showing UK model and reported deaths and cases, both cumulatively and daily, up to October 27th, with Seriously Sick and Deaths highlighted on Chart 12.

Introduction In my last post on October 21st, looking at the potential for an exit from the epidemic, I described a cyclical version of the modelling of the epidemic in the UK, reflecting outputs from Imperial College and Harvard earlier this year, which postulated a continuing cycle of partial lockdowns, easing of restrictions and upsurgesContinue reading “Adaptive triggering and the epidemic life-cycle”

Where’s the exit?

Imperial College and Harvard forecasts and illustrations of cyclical pandemic behaviour

My title for this post is drawn from a slide I have shown before, from the 17th April Cambridge Conversation webinar, which I reported in my April 17th blog post, and also in my April 22nd blog post on model refinement, illustrating the cyclical behavior of the Covid-19 epidemic in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, with control of cases and deaths achieved, only to some extent, by Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs).

Mechanistic and curve-fitting UK modelling comparison

Cumulative, daily and 7-day average model UK deaths, 83%, 6th March - 30th Sep, with the daily ratio of cumulative deaths, and the H(t) function, the natural logarithm of that ratio, and the negative natural log of H(t)

I thought it would be useful, at least for my understanding, to apply a curve-fitting approach to some of the UK reported data, and also to my model forecast based on that data.

Some thoughts on the current UK Coronavirus position

New confirmed cases of coronavirus, 7-day rolling average, USA vs Europe

A couple of interesting articles on the Coronavirus pandemic came to my attention this week; a recent on in National Geographic on June 26, highlighting a starting comparison of the USA’s cases history and recent spike in case numbers with European data.

This article referred to an older National Geographic piece, from March, by Cathleen O’Grady, referencing a specific chart from Katy Armstrong of the Imperial College Covid-19 Response team.

I noticed, and was interested in that reference following a recent interaction I had with that team, regarding their influential March 16th paper.

Meanwhile, my own forecasting model is still tracking published data quite well, although over the last couple of weeks I don’t think the published rate of deaths is falling as quickly as before.