Personal Ravings
Official UK Coronavirus reporting ends
Introduction I have continued to run my own Coronavirus model, my recent prior report on February 9th this year having immediately followed the outbreak of the “Kraken” variant, Omicron XBB.1.5, in the UK. This brief post provides my own latest charts from my model, in the light of cessation of the UK Government’s own Covid…
The Kraken Wakes*
I have continued to improve and run my Coronavirus model daily. The code for the model is now at version 172, and I have added a dataset to represent the variant XBB.1.5, known informally as “Kraken”. The fit of the model to reported deaths is good. I explore in the article the behaviour of Modelled…
How Zwift helps train for 6Points Ibiza and Formentera
Looking back at our 6Points ride to the 6 Compass points of both Formentera and Ibiza over the weekend of 4/5/6th October
Some of my bike rides in Mallorca, Ibiza and Formentera: past, present and future
Here are some bike rides I have enjoyed in the Balearics during the last seven years. I’m looking forward to my first post-pandemic visit in October for the 6Points Ibiza and Formentera, which I last rode in the autumn of 2019, with some additional Mallorca riding before and after. Some of the following rides are…
Omicron continues to surprise
Introduction In my most recent articles on the Omicron variants of Covid-19, I have highlighted the discrepancy between plummeting Active Cases and increasing cumulative Deaths. My model draws attention to this, by comparing the previous alignment of modelled and reported data, prior to February 24th, with the recent divergence. This post continues to summarise the…
Declining Omicron cases but increasing deaths
Something odd seems to be happening with the relationship between reported UK Covid-19 cases and deaths in the last few weeks, when deaths have been increasing somewhat more quickly than recently, but cases have declined steeply. My model charts seem to expose this oddity.
They think it’s all over – but it isn’t
In this article, I present a few variations of the current model to illustrate some outcomes depending on different assumptions about the current dominant variant, Omicron BA.2; they are fairly consistent in their forecasts over the 1400 day period of the model, from the outset in February 2020 to December 2023, and show that as…
Omicron BA.2, vaccination for 5-11 year-olds, and the honeymoon period
I haven’t needed to make significant updates to my Coronavirus model for a while, because it has been working well. The original Omicron variant morphed into the new BA.2 variant, and although it seems no more dangerous than its predecessor, it is thought to be between 33%-50% more transmissible. I have assumed the lower value…
A first 2022 Omicron update
While it is still very early days, both in the New Year of 2022 and also for the Omicron variant, this post adds to my recent 19th December update with a summary of further runs of my model for higher transmissions settings. Last time I ran options up to three times the transmission rate of…
Omicron modelling update
I have run updates to my model for lower and medium vaccine efficacy to Omicron, and lower, medium and higher virulence and mortality, and continue to compare with reported data. While evidence is still in short supply, nothing has firmly contradicted the impression that Omicron is highly transmissive, as well as being possibly less virulent.
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A rambling mind 