A rambling mind

Personal Ravings

The intrepid 6Points crew

Some of my bike rides in Mallorca, Ibiza and Formentera: past, present and future

Here are some bike rides I have enjoyed in the Balearics during the last seven years. I’m looking forward to my first post-pandemic visit in October for the 6Points Ibiza and Formentera, which I last rode in the autumn of 2019, with some additional Mallorca riding before and after. Some of the following rides are on the agenda!

Chart 318 for scenario UK_1196 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = -79.64%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.2 and BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 16th July 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.

Omicron continues to surprise

Introduction In my most recent articles on the Omicron variants of Covid-19, I have highlighted the discrepancy between plummeting Active Cases and increasing cumulative Deaths. My model draws attention to this, by comparing the previous alignment of modelled and reported data, prior to February 24th, with the recent divergence. This post continues to summarise theContinue reading “Omicron continues to surprise”

The WHO estimates of Covid worldwide officially reported deaths vs. actual excess deaths from the pandemic

Declining Omicron cases but increasing deaths

Something odd seems to be happening with the relationship between reported UK Covid-19 cases and deaths in the last few weeks, when deaths have been increasing somewhat more quickly than recently, but cases have declined steeply. My model charts seem to expose this oddity.

Chart 318 for scenario UK_994 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI -79.64% reduction. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6. BA.2 k11 = 8, var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS 3% and fmort 1.05%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 19th April 2022. Serious cases for 5 variants.

They think it’s all over – but it isn’t

In this article, I present a few variations of the current model to illustrate some outcomes depending on different assumptions about the current dominant variant, Omicron BA.2; they are fairly consistent in their forecasts over the 1400 day period of the model, from the outset in February 2020 to December 2023, and show that as NPIs are removed, vaccination is what keeps us safe.

Chart 318 for scenario UK_701 with adult vaccinations and 5-11 vacs from April 1st 2022. 17th May 1.8% ,19th July 1%, 1st Sep 2%, mean NPI relaxations and 30th Nov +2% and 10th Dec +3% additional NPIs. Omicron v4 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 v5 k11 = 8, var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS 7% and fmort 1.05%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to February 19th 2022. Serious cases for 5 variants.

Omicron BA.2, vaccination for 5-11 year-olds, and the honeymoon period

I haven’t needed to make significant updates to my Coronavirus model for a while, because it has been working well.
The original Omicron variant morphed into the new BA.2 variant, and although it seems no more dangerous than its predecessor, it is thought to be between 33%-50% more transmissible. I have assumed the lower value of 33% more transmissive for this post.
I have added Omicron BA.2 as fifth variant v5 to my model, with 8 times the transmissibility of Delta, compared with the original Omicron variant v4 in the model, at 6 times the Delta transmission rate.

Peak Serious cases, and the outcomes for Active Cases and deaths in December 2023 plotted against k11

A first 2022 Omicron update

While it is still very early days, both in the New Year of 2022 and also for the Omicron variant, this post adds to my recent 19th December update with a summary of further runs of my model for higher transmissions settings. Last time I ran options up to three times the transmission rate of the Delta variant, and I have now looked at transmission up to five times the Delta rate.

Chart 303 for scenario UK_000 with vaccinations. 17th May 1.8% ,19th July 1%, 1st Sep 2%, mean NPI relaxations and 30th Nov +2% and 10th Dec +3% additional NPIs to reporting date December 18th 2021. v4 transmission k11 = 3, with v4 var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS=7% and fmort=1.05%. Modelled 1400 day outcomes to December 3rd 2023 including active and serious cases from each variant, and all healthy, infected, cases and deaths.

Omicron modelling update

I have run updates to my model for lower and medium vaccine efficacy to Omicron, and lower, medium and higher virulence and mortality, and continue to compare with reported data. While evidence is still in short supply, nothing has firmly contradicted the impression that Omicron is highly transmissive, as well as being possibly less virulent.

Chart 318 for scenario UK_17 with vaccinations. 17th May 1.8% ,19th July 1%, 1st Sep 2%, mean NPI relaxations and 30th Nov +2% and 10th Dec +3% additional NPIs. v4 transmission k11 = 3, var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS 7% and fmort 1.05%. Model outcomes to October 29th 2022. Reported active cases and deaths to December 8th. Serious cases for 4 variants.

Just as we thought it was safe to go back into the water

Omicron is feared to have higher infectiousness than the Delta variant, with even greater concerns should it turn out to cause more severe symptoms, higher mortality, and possibly worst of all, if it were able to evade current Covid-19 vaccines. I have made some parametric runs of my model to assess the possible effects.

Case rates are rising in many parts of Europe. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

The pandemic situation in Europe

The pandemic situation in continental Europe has been worsening rapidly, and I felt that it I should update some country comparisons in a dedicated post.It confirms that the sourcing of data for a Coronavirus model of any given country is a very specific task nowadays, given the considerable differences in the underlying demographics, cultures, Government actions (NPIs) and public responses in the various countries.
This blog post isn’t looking at the modelling per se, but concentrates on the very different outcomes we are seeing across Europe, and looking at some of the reasons why.

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