A first 2022 Omicron update

While it is still very early days, both in the New Year of 2022 and also for the Omicron variant, this post adds to my recent 19th December update with a summary of further runs of my model for higher transmissions settings. Last time I ran options up to three times the transmission rate of the Delta variant, and I have now looked at transmission up to five times the Delta rate.

Implications of the R0 Reproduction Number in an unconstrained Delta variant environment

In my April 8th 2020 post about the R0 reproduction number and the use of SIR models to model the pandemic, I developed a chart which predicted the proportion of the population uninfected by the end of an unconstrained pandemic.

That chart allowed for an R0 up to 3, but the Delta variant that arrived in the UK a year later, in April 2021, has an R0 far higher than the original, possible 2.5 times as high, as much as R0=7, perhaps.

I have added to the scope of that previous post to develop a chart allowing R0 up to 7..