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A rambling mind

Current affairs, cycling, Mallorca and lots more ravings of a rambling mind – also see https://www.briansutton.uk for more that gets my attention

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Imperial College and Harvard forecasts and illustrations of cyclical pandemic behaviour

Where’s the exit?

My title for this post is drawn from a slide I have shown before, from the 17th April Cambridge Conversation webinar, which I reported in my April 17th blog post, and also in my April 22nd blog post on model refinement, illustrating the cyclical behavior of the Covid-19 epidemic in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, with control of cases and deaths achieved, only to some extent, by Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs).

Chart 11 showing the effect on cumulative and daily UK model and reported deaths and cases of a 2-week circuit-breaker measure on October 19th

Recent events and Coronavirus model update

Many countries, including the UK, are experiencing a resurgence of Covid-19 cases recently, although, thankfully, with a much lower death rate. I have run several iterations of my model in the meantime, introducing several lockdown adjustment points, since my last blog post, as the situation has developed. The key feature is the sharp rise cases, and to a lesser extent, deaths, around the time of the lockdown easing in the summer. I have applied a 10% increase in current intervention effectiveness on October 19th (although there are some differences in the half-term dates across the UK), followed by a partial relaxation after 2 weeks, -5%, reducing the circuit-breaker measure by half – so not back to the level we are at currently. The effect of that change is shown in the final chart in the blog post.

Model and reported UK deaths and cases from Feb 1st to Sep 21st with 4 easings and 1 increase after the initial lockdown effectiveness of 84.3%, as shown on the charts

A brief look at model sensitivities to lockdown easing as we prepare for winter

The UK Government has just announced some reversals of the current lockdown easing, and so before I model the additional interventions announced today, I want to illustrate quickly the behaviour of the model in response to changing the effectiveness of current interventions, refecting the easings that have already been made, and also to highlight the sensitivity of the forecasts of case and death rates to the influence of lockdown effectiveness.

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