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A rambling mind

Current affairs, cycling, Mallorca and lots more ravings of a rambling mind – also see https://www.briansutton.uk for more that gets my attention

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Chart 318 for scenarios UK479 and UK465 with vaccinations and 2021 NPI relaxations up to June 21st with 4% and Aug 16th with 2% NPI effectiveness. v3 transmission k11 = 1, var_eff = 100%, fss and fmort as fort v1 and v2. Modelled 800 day outcomes to April 12th 2022 compared with reported active cases and deaths to June 4th. Serious cases for three variants.

Delta variant impact on June 21st easing – delay or reduce?

Having explored what pandemic advisers might be seeing and highlighting to decision-makers in Government, I run scenarios with different settings for the planned June 21st relaxation of lockdown, the last in the series of relaxations over the first half of 2021, following the January 3rd lockdown. These model scenarios show examples of what the relative consequences of the June 21st relaxation as planned, versus four other options:- cancellation of the June 21st step altogether, two different delays, of 28 and 56 days, and lastly a 50% reduction in the scope of the June 21st relaxation.

Recent variants with their identifiers, lineage, source country if known, total cases, and new cases since May 12th: source gov.uk

What are UK Government advisers seeing?

I have developed some model scenarios that show examples of what might be behind expert advice on the caution required with new SARS-Cov-2 variants. The scenarios indicate the importance of the UK vaccine programme, as we face variants with potentially different characteristics of transmission, severity of infection and responsiveness to vaccines. Understanding those variant characteristics is vital for projections.

Chart 18 for scenarios UK433 & UK439: v3 transmission k11 = 1, comparing var_eff and fss fmort effects. Modelled 800 day outcomes to April 12th 2022 compared with reported deaths to May 23rd. Serious cases for all variants, with 2021 NPI relaxations up to June 21st 2021.

Why the UK Government is worried about new variants

I have developed some model scenarios that show examples of what might be behind expert advice on the caution required with new SARS-Cov-2 variants. The scenarios indicate the importance of the UK vaccine programme, as we face variants with potentially different characteristics of transmission, severity of infection and responsiveness to vaccines.

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