Home

A rambling mind

Current affairs, cycling, Mallorca and lots more ravings of a rambling mind – also see https://www.briansutton.uk for more that gets my attention

Latest from the Blog

Early pandemic Failures of State according to the Sunday Times Insight team

The UK Select Committees’ report into UK Government Covid failures

The UK parliamentary Health and Social Care, and Science and Technology Committees have just jointly published their substantial report criticising the many errors made by UK Government in its handling of the Covid crisis. It praised, justifiably, the excellent strategy (early risk investment) and deployment of vaccines. But its own timing is as questionable as that of any it seeks to criticise.

Solving log(x) = R(x-1) for a family of R values, with R up to 7

Implications of the R0 Reproduction Number in an unconstrained Delta variant environment

In my April 8th 2020 post about the R0 reproduction number and the use of SIR models to model the pandemic, I developed a chart which predicted the proportion of the population uninfected by the end of an unconstrained pandemic.

That chart allowed for an R0 up to 3, but the Delta variant that arrived in the UK a year later, in April 2021, has an R0 far higher than the original, possible 2.5 times as high, as much as R0=7, perhaps.

I have added to the scope of that previous post to develop a chart allowing R0 up to 7..

Repeated elements of the 164-compartment model flowchart with Uninfected, Vaccinated, double Vaccinated, Recovered and Deceased compartments for each group; and Incubation, Sick, Seriously Sick, and Better infective compartments per group, per variant and per vaccination status, with associated transition rates

“Freedom Day”, multiple vaccinations and the Delta variant

In this post, I run a development of my model which includes immunity waning (at a 150 day half-life), vaccine hesitancy by group, multiple vaccine inoculations (representing the typical two jabs required by most vaccines for best immunity) and also the possibility of vaccinated people not only to become infected, but also to pass on the virus even if not infected themselves.

Get new content delivered directly to your inbox.