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A rambling mind

Current affairs, cycling, Mallorca and lots more ravings of a rambling mind – also see https://www.briansutton.uk for more that gets my attention

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Peak Serious cases, and the outcomes for Active Cases and deaths in December 2023 plotted against k11

A first 2022 Omicron update

While it is still very early days, both in the New Year of 2022 and also for the Omicron variant, this post adds to my recent 19th December update with a summary of further runs of my model for higher transmissions settings. Last time I ran options up to three times the transmission rate of the Delta variant, and I have now looked at transmission up to five times the Delta rate.

Chart 303 for scenario UK_000 with vaccinations. 17th May 1.8% ,19th July 1%, 1st Sep 2%, mean NPI relaxations and 30th Nov +2% and 10th Dec +3% additional NPIs to reporting date December 18th 2021. v4 transmission k11 = 3, with v4 var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS=7% and fmort=1.05%. Modelled 1400 day outcomes to December 3rd 2023 including active and serious cases from each variant, and all healthy, infected, cases and deaths.

Omicron modelling update

I have run updates to my model for lower and medium vaccine efficacy to Omicron, and lower, medium and higher virulence and mortality, and continue to compare with reported data. While evidence is still in short supply, nothing has firmly contradicted the impression that Omicron is highly transmissive, as well as being possibly less virulent.

Chart 318 for scenario UK_17 with vaccinations. 17th May 1.8% ,19th July 1%, 1st Sep 2%, mean NPI relaxations and 30th Nov +2% and 10th Dec +3% additional NPIs. v4 transmission k11 = 3, var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS 7% and fmort 1.05%. Model outcomes to October 29th 2022. Reported active cases and deaths to December 8th. Serious cases for 4 variants.

Just as we thought it was safe to go back into the water

Omicron is feared to have higher infectiousness than the Delta variant, with even greater concerns should it turn out to cause more severe symptoms, higher mortality, and possibly worst of all, if it were able to evade current Covid-19 vaccines. I have made some parametric runs of my model to assess the possible effects.

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