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Chart 209 showing modelled and reported cumulative cases and deaths to 800 days in the groups model

Age and vulnerability related Coronavirus modelling

In my most recent post on February 12th, I described modelling work I had done in support of Prof. Alex de Visscher’s paper, in conjunction with Dr. Tom Sutton, on “Second-wave Dynamics of COVID-19: Impact of Behavioral Changes, Immunity Loss, New Strains, and Vaccination” which has now been published for peer review as a pre-print on Springer’s site at https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-195879/v1. I have now added vaccination and multiple variants I had already added to our previous model into the new grouped population model, and this blog post reports on progress with that new model.

Chart 17 model output for deaths, active cases and Seriously Sick to 800 days. 2nd virus variant from September 23rd, day 235. 3rd variant from January 1st 2021, Day 335. 250k vacs/day from January 1st (day 335) and 400k vacs/day from February 1st (day 366) and thereafter. 15% NPI reduction on March 7th, model Day 401.

NPIs, variants and vaccine models

This paper reports some parametric Coronavirus model runs I have made that compare, in particular, how the UK vaccine programme allows some NPI relaxation compared with a case with no vaccination. The outcome is that the vaccine programme in the UK has the potential to reduce the imposition of NPIs on March 7th by about 15%, without costing lives, this being the next time we in the UK are due for a major NPI review, potentially involving the return of schools at around March 7th.

Repeated elements of the 12-compartment model flowchart with repeated Incubation, Sick, Seriously Sick, and Better compartments, all infective, with transfer rates

The timing of multiple Coronavirus variants

Since my most recent posts on December 23rd and January 5th I have adjusted my model algorithms to model more than two variants, so that once better data is available on new variant characteristics, I can respond more quickly. The scenarios I have modelled show that presented with the threat of new variants, early proactive, preventative and decisive action in necessary as soon as a variant is identified. If a new variant is allowed to multiply and grow before appropriate Non Pharmaceutical Interventions are introduced (just as in the first days of the UK pandemic in March 2020, and with our UK March 23rd response) control of the virus is quickly lost.

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