Author Archives: docbrs

Some thoughts on the current UK Coronavirus position

A couple of interesting articles on the Coronavirus pandemic came to my attention this week; a recent on in National Geographic on June 26, highlighting a starting comparison of the USA’s cases history and recent spike in case numbers with European data.

This article referred to an older National Geographic piece, from March, by Cathleen O’Grady, referencing a specific chart from Katy Armstrong of the Imperial College Covid-19 Response team.

I noticed, and was interested in that reference following a recent interaction I had with that team, regarding their influential March 16th paper.

Meanwhile, my own forecasting model is still tracking published data quite well, although over the last couple of weeks I don’t think the published rate of deaths is falling as quickly as before.

The Surrey Hills in the 2019 Prudential RideLondon 100

This video is about the Surrey Hills part of my Prudential RideLondon 100 in 2019, taking in Leith Hill and Box Hill. It’s a “director’s cut” from my full ride post at https://www.briansutton.uk/?p=1084. The middle part of the video shows the cycling log-jam on Leith Hill, where we had to stop seven times, losing 10Continue reading “The Surrey Hills in the 2019 Prudential RideLondon 100”

A new look at Sobremunt, the hardest climb in Mallorca

This video is about the Sobremunt climb, especially near the top of the climb which is quite hard to find amongst the various agricultural estates up there – such as the Sobremunt estate itself. My original post on “Sobremunt, the hardest climb in Mallorca” also has a shorter slideshow collage, and a little more aboutContinue reading “A new look at Sobremunt, the hardest climb in Mallorca”

Coronavirus model tracking, lockdown and lessons

A brief update post to confirm that my Coronavirus model is still tracking the daily reported UK data well, and doesn’t currently need any parameter changes. I go on to highlight some important aspects of emphasis in the Daily Downing St. Update on June 10th, as well as the response to Prof. Neil Ferguson’s comments to the Parliamentary Select Committee for Science and Technology about the impact of an earlier lockdown date, a scenario I have modelled and discussed before.

Current Coronavirus model forecast, and next steps

My model is currently fitting deaths data for the UK, on the originally modelled basis of Government published “all settings” deaths. I plan to compare results by looking at the Gompertz function and Sigmoid charts that Michael Levitt uses.

Michael Levitt’s analysis of European Covid-19 data

I promised in an earlier blog post to present Prof. Michael Levitt’s analysis of Covid-19 data published on the EuroMoMo site for European health data over the last few years. His finding is that COVID19 is similar to flu only in total and in age range excess mortality. Flu is a different virus, has a safe vaccine & is much less a threat to heroic medical professionals.

Cambridge Conversation 14th May 2020, and Michael Levitt’s analysis of Euro data

I covered the May 14th Cambridge Conversation in my blog post last week, and promised to make available the YouTube link for it when uploaded. It is now on the University of Cambridge channel.

Another perspective on Coronavirus – Prof. Michael Levitt

Owing to the serendipity of a contemporary and friend of mine at King’s College London, Andrew Ennis, wishing one of HIS contemporaries in Physics, Michael Levitt, a happy birthday on 9th May, and mentioning me and my Coronavirus modelling attempts in passing, I am benefiting from another perspective on Coronavirus from Michael Levitt.