Sweden – A rambling mind

Model update following UK revision of Covid-19 deaths reporting

Model forecast for the UK deaths as at August 14th, compared with reported for 84.3% lockdown effectiveness, on March 23rd, modified in 5 steps by -.3%, -0% -0% and -0% successively

On August 12th, the UK Government revised their counting methodology and reporting of deaths from Covid-19, bringing Public Health England’s reporting into line with that from the other home countries, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. I have re-calibrated and re-forecast my model to adapt to this new basis.