Introduce Yourself (Example Post)

This is an example post, originally published as part of Blogging University. Enroll in one of our ten programs, and start your blog right. You’re going to publish a post today. Don’t worry about how your blog looks. Don’t worry if you haven’t given it a name yet, or you’re feeling overwhelmed. Just click theContinue reading “Introduce Yourself (Example Post)”

Introduce Yourself (Example Post)

This is an example post, originally published as part of Blogging University. Enroll in one of our ten programs, and start your blog right. You’re going to publish a post today. Don’t worry about how your blog looks. Don’t worry if you haven’t given it a name yet, or you’re feeling overwhelmed. Just click theContinue reading “Introduce Yourself (Example Post)”

Introduce Yourself (Example Post)

This is an example post, originally published as part of Blogging University. Enroll in one of our ten programs, and start your blog right. You’re going to publish a post today. Don’t worry about how your blog looks. Don’t worry if you haven’t given it a name yet, or you’re feeling overwhelmed. Just click theContinue reading “Introduce Yourself (Example Post)”

Current Coronavirus model forecast, and next steps

My model is currently fitting deaths data for the UK, on the originally modelled basis of Government published “all settings” deaths. I plan to compare results by looking at the Gompertz function and Sigmoid charts that Michael Levitt uses.

Coronavirus modelling work reported by the BBC

This article by the BBC’s Rachel Schraer explores the modelling for the progression of the Coronavirus Covid-19. In the article we see some graphs showing epidemic growth rates, and in particular this one showing infection rate dependency on how many one individual infects in a given period. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111 This chart led me to look intoContinue reading “Coronavirus modelling work reported by the BBC”

Coronavirus – possible trajectories

I guess the UK line in the Johns Hopkins chart, reported earlier, might well flatten at some point soon, as some other countries’ lines have. But if we continue at 3 days for doubling of cases, according to my spreadsheet experiment, we will see over 1m cases after 40 days. See:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kE_pNRlVaFBeY5DxknPgeK5wmXNeBuyslizpvJmoQDY/edit?usp=sharingand the example outputs attachedContinue reading “Coronavirus – possible trajectories”

Coronavirus – forecasting numbers

A few people might have see the Johns Hopkins University Medical School chart on Covid-19 infection rates in different countries. This particular chart (they have produced many different outputs, some of them interactive world incidence models – see https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html for more) usefully compares some various national growth rates with straight lines representing different periods overContinue reading “Coronavirus – forecasting numbers”

Coronavirus modelling – GLEAMviz15

Here’s the kind of stuff that the Covid-19 modellers will be doing. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep46076.pdf I have downloaded GleamViz, http://www.gleamviz.org/simulator/client/, and it is quite complicated to set up (I used to have a little Windows app called Wildfire that just needed a few numbers to get a pictorial progression of life/recovery/death from the disease, depending on infectivity,Continue reading “Coronavirus modelling – GLEAMviz15”

New Year skiing at Breckenridge 2003/4/5

This video is about skiing in Breckenridge during our vacation at New Year 2003-4. We had been skiing in Breckenridge since the early 90s. Once our boys Harry & Tom discovered firstly Whistler, and then Breckenridge, we couldn’t persuade them to go back to skiing in Europe as we had for many years! On ourContinue reading “New Year skiing at Breckenridge 2003/4/5”

Courmayeur in January 2008

In January 2008, we spent a week skiing in Courmayeur, a smaller Italian resort, following Zermatt the year before and St Anton the year after. Courmayeur lost nothing by comparison, and as you will see below, we enjoyed the wonderful snow conditions and varied terrain, including off-piste and tree skiing, enormously. The first video isContinue reading “Courmayeur in January 2008”