Author Archives: docbrs

Analogies between Coronavirus infection modelling, telephone exchange capacity planning, Zwift game platform expansion, military simulation models and queuing theory

I reflect on my past experiences with event-based simulation, connecting it to Queuing Theory and the statistical mathematics used in telephone exchanges and modern technological applications, particularly gaming platforms like Zwift. I draw parallels between call arrival patterns and infection models, particularly regarding COVID-19. I acknowledge the influence of historical research, including work by Prof. Neil Ferguson, on understanding infection dynamics and the necessity for public health measures like social distancing. I emphasize the importance of mathematical modeling in managing infectious diseases effectively.

Reflecting on the UK’s First Coronavirus Lockdown: Five Years Later

This article presents two case number comparison charts for the 9th March and 23rd March 2020 UK Coronavirus lockdown dates. I had covered the deaths data in more detail in my previous post on this topic, and add that here too.

The Restricted Three Body Problem

This article explores the Restricted Three-Body Problem (RTBP), focusing on the dynamics of a spacecraft influenced by two larger bodies. It includes methods for analyzing motion using numerical solvers, stability investigation of Lagrange points, and the effect of varying mass ratios. Programming tasks and analyses are provided to illustrate behavior in gravitational fields over defined trajectories and conditions.

My Coronavirus model post-Pirola

I have updated my Coronavirus model to include an assessment of the potential impact of the new BA.2.86 Pirola variant. The model factors in age-group structures, transmission rates, vaccination phases, and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The model finds that despite reported decreases in Covid-19 cases in the UK, case recording has been high with recent data seeming erratic, with some inadequacy in the data reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) after it ceased its regular reporting. I source data from Worldometers, providing reliable Covid-19 figures. The accuracy of the model may be compromised by lower reliability of active case data.

My Coronavirus UK model outcomes as ONS reporting comes to an end

The UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) had just announced that it was ceasing publication of the regular cases and deaths outcomes of the UK Covid-19 pandemic, as of 24th March 2023, and then revised all previously published Covid data. I was able to make global changes to most of my model history, by re-working some of the early Variant characteristics in the model. This post reports the outcomes of that work.

Official UK Coronavirus reporting ends

Introduction I have continued to run my own Coronavirus model, my recent prior report on February 9th this year having immediately followed the outbreak of the “Kraken” variant, Omicron XBB.1.5, in the UK. This brief post provides my own latest charts from my model, in the light of cessation of the UK Government’s own CovidContinue reading “Official UK Coronavirus reporting ends”

The Kraken Wakes* – Coronavirus

I have continued to improve and run my Coronavirus model daily. The code for the model is now at version 172, and I have added a dataset to represent the variant XBB.1.5, known informally as “Kraken”. The fit of the model to reported deaths is good. I explore in the article the behaviour of Modelled vs. Reported Active Cases.