XBB.1.5 – A rambling mind

The Kraken Wakes*

Chart 318 for scenario UK_1246 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = -79.64%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA.4-5 transmission k11=11, Kraken XBB.1.5 transmission k11=15. All k2hl = 5.1. Omicron BA.1 var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.2 var_eff = 70/85/95%. Omicron BA.4/5 var_eff = 25/50/70%. Kraken XBB.1.5 var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 fSS=3% and fMORT=1.5%. Omicron BA.2 and BA.4-5 fSS=3% and fMORT=1.5%. Kraken XBB.1.5 fSS=3% and fMORT=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 7th Feb 2023. Serious cases for 7 variants.

I have continued to improve and run my Coronavirus model daily. The code for the model is now at version 172, and I have added a dataset to represent the variant XBB.1.5, known informally as “Kraken”. The fit of the model to reported deaths is good. I explore in the article the behaviour of Modelled vs. Reported Active Cases.