Variant – Page 3 – A rambling mind

The timing of multiple Coronavirus variants

Repeated elements of the 12-compartment model flowchart with repeated Incubation, Sick, Seriously Sick, and Better compartments, all infective, with transfer rates

Since my most recent posts on December 23rd and January 5th I have adjusted my model algorithms to model more than two variants, so that once better data is available on new variant characteristics, I can respond more quickly. The scenarios I have modelled show that presented with the threat of new variants, early proactive, preventative and decisive action in necessary as soon as a variant is identified. If a new variant is allowed to multiply and grow before appropriate Non Pharmaceutical Interventions are introduced (just as in the first days of the UK pandemic in March 2020, and with our UK March 23rd response) control of the virus is quickly lost.

Concurrent Coronavirus two variant modelling

New 12-compartment model flowchart with additional vaccination compartment V and repeated Incubation, Sick, Seriously Sick, and Better compartments, all infective, in addition to the Uninfected, Vaccinated, Recovered and Deceased compartments

I present an analysis of the pandemic situation in the UK, with two Coronavirus variants present since December 16th, and sensitivities to different New Year 2021 Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), but always with the background of vaccine dispensing, which started in the UK on December 8th.

Exploring the possible impact of the new variant coronavirus

Chart 14 model output to 800 days. Realistic case scenario. New virus variant. Vaccinations start Jan 1st 2021 (Day 335) at 100k/day, at 95% efficacy, rising to 300k/day at 95% efficacy, until April 12th 2022. 10% Dec 16th Intervention enhancement. 20% intervention enhancement after New Year.

I cautiously welcomed “the end of the beginning”, and events since then have borne out the need for caution, with the discovery of a mutant variant of the SARS-Cov-2 virus (denoted VUI-202012/01) which seems to have a much greater transmission rate, as much as 70% more than the strain of SARS-Cov-2 we have seen previously in the UK. I have developed a further version of my Coronavirus model which now includes not only intervention capability but also a vaccination module, as reported before, and now the ability to add further virus strains with different transmission characteristics.