Owing to the serendipity of a contemporary and friend of mine at King’s College London, Andrew Ennis, wishing one of HIS contemporaries in Physics, Michael Levitt, a happy birthday on 9th May, and mentioning me and my Coronavirus modelling attempts in passing, I am benefiting from another perspective on Coronavirus from Michael Levitt.
Tag Archives: modelling
Cambridge Conversations May 14th 2020 – reading data and the place of modelling
Cambridge Conversations May 14th 2020, the second Cambridge Conversations webinar on Covid-19, featuring Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter of Churchill College, and Professor Mike Hulme, Professor of Human Geography and Fellow of Pembroke College.
What if UK lockdown had been 2 weeks earlier?
This article explores some of the possible outcomes of assumed earlier lockdown measures (March 9th example) by UK in its response to the Coronavirus pandemic.
Model update for the latest UK Coronavirus numbers
This is a brief update to my model predictions in the light of a week’s published data regarding Covid-19 cases and deaths in all settings – hospitals, care homes and the community.
Re-modelling after changes to UK Coronavirus data collection and reporting
The UK Government yesterday changed the reporting basis for Cononavirus numbers, retrospectively (since 6th March 2020) adding in deaths in the Care Home and and other settings, and also modifying the “Active Cases” to match, and so I have adjusted my model to match.
Cambridge Conversations and model refinement
In my post a few days ago at https://www.briansutton.uk/?p=1536, I mentioned that the webinar I reported there was to be released on YouTube this week, and it is now available. It is VERY much worth 40 minutes of your time to take a look. It’s at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYcA7e1S3XU
UK Coronavirus Modelling – match to data
Even having explored Prof. Alex Visscher’s published MatLab code for a week or two now, with UK data, even I am surprised at how well the model is matching up to published UK data so far (on April 18th 2020). I have reported my previous work a couple of times, once relating to the modellingContinue reading “UK Coronavirus Modelling – match to data”
Cambridge conversations 17th April 2020 – exit strategy?
As an alumnus, I had the opportunity today (with 2000 other people in over 60 countries) to attend a Cambridge University webinar on the current pandemic crisis. It was moderated by Chris Smith, a consultant medical virologist and lecturer at Cambridge (and a presenter on https://www.thenakedscientists.com/ where more about this event will be found). TheContinue reading “Cambridge conversations 17th April 2020 – exit strategy?”
Making a little progress with a Covid-19 model and real data
In my research on appropriate (available and feasible (for me)) modelling tools for epidemics, I discovered this paper by Prof. Alex de Visscher (to be called Alex hereafter). He has been incredibly helpful. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.08824.pdf Thanks to Alex including the MatLab code (a maths package I have used before) in the paper, and also a detailedContinue reading “Making a little progress with a Covid-19 model and real data”
The SIR model and importance of the R0 Reproductive Number
In the recent daily UK Government presentations, the R0 Reproductive Number has been mentioned a few times, and with good reason. Its value is as a commonly accepted measure of the propensity of an infectious disease outbreak to become an epidemic. It turns out to be a relatively simple number to define, although working backContinue reading “The SIR model and importance of the R0 Reproductive Number”