My model is currently fitting deaths data for the UK, on the originally modelled basis of Government published “all settings” deaths. I plan to compare results by looking at the Gompertz function and Sigmoid charts that Michael Levitt uses.
Tag Archives: modelling
Michael Levitt’s analysis of European Covid-19 data – Coronavirus
I promised in an earlier blog post to present Prof. Michael Levitt’s analysis of Covid-19 data published on the EuroMoMo site for European health data over the last few years. His finding is that COVID19 is similar to flu only in total and in age range excess mortality. Flu is a different virus, has a safe vaccine & is much less a threat to heroic medical professionals.
My model calculations for Coronavirus cases for an earlier UK lockdown
This post presents the two case number comparisons charts for the 9th March and 23rd March lockdown dates (I had covered the death data in more detail in my previous post on this topic).
Cambridge Conversation 14th May 2020, and Michael Levitt’s analysis of Euro Coronavirus data
I covered the May 14th Cambridge Conversation in my blog post last week, and promised to make available the YouTube link for it when uploaded. It is now on the University of Cambridge channel.
Another perspective on Coronavirus – Prof. Michael Levitt
Owing to the serendipity of a contemporary and friend of mine at King’s College London, Andrew Ennis, wishing one of HIS contemporaries in Physics, Michael Levitt, a happy birthday on 9th May, and mentioning me and my Coronavirus modelling attempts in passing, I am benefiting from another perspective on Coronavirus from Michael Levitt.
Cambridge Conversations May 14th 2020 – reading data and the place of modelling – Coronavirus
Cambridge Conversations May 14th 2020, the second Cambridge Conversations webinar on Covid-19, featuring Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter of Churchill College, and Professor Mike Hulme, Professor of Human Geography and Fellow of Pembroke College.
What if UK lockdown had been 2 weeks earlier? – Coronavirus
This article explores some of the possible outcomes of assumed earlier lockdown measures (March 9th example) by UK in its response to the Coronavirus pandemic.
Model update for the latest UK Coronavirus numbers
This is a brief update to my model predictions in the light of a week’s published data regarding Covid-19 cases and deaths in all settings – hospitals, care homes and the community.
Re-modelling after changes to UK Coronavirus data collection and reporting
The UK Government yesterday changed the reporting basis for Cononavirus numbers, retrospectively (since 6th March 2020) adding in deaths in the Care Home and and other settings, and also modifying the “Active Cases” to match, and so I have adjusted my model to match.
Cambridge Conversations and Coronavirus model refinement
In my post a few days ago at https://www.briansutton.uk/?p=1536, I mentioned that the webinar I reported there was to be released on YouTube this week, and it is now available. It is VERY much worth 40 minutes of your time to take a look. It’s at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYcA7e1S3XU
A rambling mind 