Kraken – A rambling mind

My Coronavirus model post-Pirola

Chart 318 for scenario UK_1445 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from 4th April 2022

I have updated my Coronavirus model to include an assessment of the potential impact of the new BA.2.86 Pirola variant. The model factors in age-group structures, transmission rates, vaccination phases, and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The model finds that despite reported decreases in Covid-19 cases in the UK, case recording has been high with recent data seeming erratic, with some inadequacy in the data reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) after it ceased its regular reporting. I source data from Worldometers, providing reliable Covid-19 figures. The accuracy of the model may be compromised by lower reliability of active case data.

My Coronavirus UK model outcomes as ONS reporting comes to an end

Chart 318 for scenario UK_1279 for June 11th 2023, showing ONS reported Active Cases at 9,614 cases. fmort Wuhan 2.1% and fmort Alpha 1.65%

The UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) had just announced that it was ceasing publication of the regular cases and deaths outcomes of the UK Covid-19 pandemic, as of 24th March 2023, and then revised all previously published Covid data. I was able to make global changes to most of my model history, by re-working some of the early Variant characteristics in the model. This post reports the outcomes of that work.

Official UK Coronavirus reporting ends

Chart 209 for scenario UK_1266 with 9 variants and 12 vaccination phases. Model outcomes for infections, active & serious cases, deaths and healthy people to 24th March 2024. Reported active cases and deaths to 14th April 2023. Aggregated data for 9 variants.

Introduction I have continued to run my own Coronavirus model, my recent prior report on February 9th this year having immediately followed the outbreak of the “Kraken” variant, Omicron XBB.1.5, in the UK. This brief post provides my own latest charts from my model, in the light of cessation of the UK Government’s own CovidContinue reading “Official UK Coronavirus reporting ends”

The Kraken Wakes* – Coronavirus

Chart 318 for scenario UK_1246 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = -79.64%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA.4-5 transmission k11=11, Kraken XBB.1.5 transmission k11=15. All k2hl = 5.1. Omicron BA.1 var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.2 var_eff = 70/85/95%. Omicron BA.4/5 var_eff = 25/50/70%. Kraken XBB.1.5 var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 fSS=3% and fMORT=1.5%. Omicron BA.2 and BA.4-5 fSS=3% and fMORT=1.5%. Kraken XBB.1.5 fSS=3% and fMORT=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 7th Feb 2023. Serious cases for 7 variants.

I have continued to improve and run my Coronavirus model daily. The code for the model is now at version 172, and I have added a dataset to represent the variant XBB.1.5, known informally as “Kraken”. The fit of the model to reported deaths is good. I explore in the article the behaviour of Modelled vs. Reported Active Cases.