Tag Archives: modeling

Some progress with the Gillespie SIR model

In the news today (coincident with my current work on this post) we can see how important the measures taken through social distancing, self-isolation and (partial) lockdown are to reducing the rate of infections. So far, the SHTM researchers say “…the R0 could be cut…” and “likely lead to a substantial impact and decline…” –Continue reading “Some progress with the Gillespie SIR model”

Coronavirus modelling work reported by the BBC

This article by the BBC’s Rachel Schraer explores the modelling for the progression of the Coronavirus Covid-19. In the article we see some graphs showing epidemic growth rates, and in particular this one showing infection rate dependency on how many one individual infects in a given period. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111 This chart led me to look intoContinue reading “Coronavirus modelling work reported by the BBC”

Coronavirus – possible trajectories

I guess the UK line in the Johns Hopkins chart, reported earlier, might well flatten at some point soon, as some other countries’ lines have. But if we continue at 3 days for doubling of cases, according to my spreadsheet experiment, we will see over 1m cases after 40 days. See:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kE_pNRlVaFBeY5DxknPgeK5wmXNeBuyslizpvJmoQDY/edit?usp=sharingand the example outputs attachedContinue reading “Coronavirus – possible trajectories”

Coronavirus – forecasting numbers

A few people might have seen the Johns Hopkins University Medical School chart on Covid-19 infection rates in different countries. They have produced many different outputs, some of them interactive world incidence models – see https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. This particular chart usefully compares some various national growth rates with straight lines representing different periods over which theContinue reading “Coronavirus – forecasting numbers”

Coronavirus modelling – GLEAMviz15

Here’s the kind of stuff that the Covid-19 modellers will be doing. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep46076.pdf I have downloaded GleamViz, http://www.gleamviz.org/simulator/client/, and it is quite complicated to set up (I used to have a little Windows app called Wildfire that just needed a few numbers to get a pictorial progression of life/recovery/death from the disease, depending on infectivity,Continue reading “Coronavirus modelling – GLEAMviz15”