Neil Ferguson – A rambling mind

Analogies between Coronavirus infection modelling, telephone exchange capacity planning, Zwift game platform expansion, military simulation models and queuing theory

I reflect on my past experiences with event-based simulation, connecting it to Queuing Theory and the statistical mathematics used in telephone exchanges and modern technological applications, particularly gaming platforms like Zwift. I draw parallels between call arrival patterns and infection models, particularly regarding COVID-19. I acknowledge the influence of historical research, including work by Prof. Neil Ferguson, on understanding infection dynamics and the necessity for public health measures like social distancing. I emphasize the importance of mathematical modeling in managing infectious diseases effectively.

Reflecting on the UK’s First Coronavirus Lockdown: Five Years Later

Chart 6 UK cases reported vs. model log y-axis 9th March lockdown, 84% effectiveness

This article presents two case number comparison charts for the 9th March and 23rd March 2020 UK Coronavirus lockdown dates. I had covered the deaths data in more detail in my previous post on this topic, and add that here too.

The Cononavirus pandemic situation in Europe

Case rates are rising in many parts of Europe. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

The pandemic situation in continental Europe has been worsening rapidly, and I felt that it I should update some country comparisons in a dedicated post.It confirms that the sourcing of data for a Coronavirus model of any given country is a very specific task nowadays, given the considerable differences in the underlying demographics, cultures, Government actions (NPIs) and public responses in the various countries.
This blog post isn’t looking at the modelling per se, but concentrates on the very different outcomes we are seeing across Europe, and looking at some of the reasons why.

The UK Select Committees’ report into UK Government Coronavirus Covid failures

Early pandemic Failures of State according to the Sunday Times Insight team

The UK parliamentary Health and Social Care, and Science and Technology Committees have just jointly published their substantial report criticising the many errors made by UK Government in its handling of the Covid crisis. It praised, justifiably, the excellent strategy (early risk investment) and deployment of vaccines. But its own timing is as questionable as that of any it seeks to criticise.

My model calculations for Coronavirus cases for an earlier UK lockdown

This post presents the two case number comparisons charts for the 9th March and 23rd March lockdown dates (I had covered the death data in more detail in my previous post on this topic).