SARS-CoV-2 – Page 3 – A rambling mind

Current Coronavirus model forecast, and next steps

Reported Deaths vs. Modelled deaths, both cumulative and daily,

My model is currently fitting deaths data for the UK, on the originally modelled basis of Government published “all settings” deaths. I plan to compare results by looking at the Gompertz function and Sigmoid charts that Michael Levitt uses.

Michael Levitt’s analysis of European Covid-19 data – Coronavirus

Deaths graphs from EurMoMo allow the calculation of Excess deaths

I promised in an earlier blog post to present Prof. Michael Levitt’s analysis of Covid-19 data published on the EuroMoMo site for European health data over the last few years. His finding is that COVID19 is similar to flu only in total and in age range excess mortality. Flu is a different virus, has a safe vaccine & is much less a threat to heroic medical professionals.