NPIs – A rambling mind

My Coronavirus model post-Pirola

Chart 318 for scenario UK_1445 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from 4th April 2022

I have updated my Coronavirus model to include an assessment of the potential impact of the new BA.2.86 Pirola variant. The model factors in age-group structures, transmission rates, vaccination phases, and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The model finds that despite reported decreases in Covid-19 cases in the UK, case recording has been high with recent data seeming erratic, with some inadequacy in the data reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) after it ceased its regular reporting. I source data from Worldometers, providing reliable Covid-19 figures. The accuracy of the model may be compromised by lower reliability of active case data.

They think it’s all over – but it isn’t – Coronavirus

Chart 318 for scenario UK_994 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI -79.64% reduction. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6. BA.2 k11 = 8, var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS 3% and fmort 1.05%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 19th April 2022. Serious cases for 5 variants.

In this article, I present a few variations of the current model to illustrate some outcomes depending on different assumptions about the current dominant variant, Omicron BA.2; they are fairly consistent in their forecasts over the 1400 day period of the model, from the outset in February 2020 to December 2023, and show that as NPIs are removed, vaccination is what keeps us safe.