BA.1 – A rambling mind

They think it’s all over – but it isn’t

Chart 318 for scenario UK_994 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI -79.64% reduction. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6. BA.2 k11 = 8, var_eff = 25/50/70%, fSS 3% and fmort 1.05%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 19th April 2022. Serious cases for 5 variants.

In this article, I present a few variations of the current model to illustrate some outcomes depending on different assumptions about the current dominant variant, Omicron BA.2; they are fairly consistent in their forecasts over the 1400 day period of the model, from the outset in February 2020 to December 2023, and show that as NPIs are removed, vaccination is what keeps us safe.