Personal Ravings
Analogies between Coronavirus infection modelling, telephone exchange capacity planning, Zwift game platform expansion, military simulation models and queuing theory
I reflect on my past experiences with event-based simulation, connecting it to Queuing Theory and the statistical mathematics used in telephone exchanges and modern technological applications, particularly gaming platforms like Zwift. I draw parallels between call arrival patterns and infection models, particularly regarding COVID-19. I acknowledge the influence of historical research, including work by Prof.…
Reflecting on the UK’s First Coronavirus Lockdown: Five Years Later
This article presents two case number comparison charts for the 9th March and 23rd March 2020 UK Coronavirus lockdown dates. I had covered the deaths data in more detail in my previous post on this topic, and add that here too.
The Restricted Three Body Problem
This article explores the Restricted Three-Body Problem (RTBP), focusing on the dynamics of a spacecraft influenced by two larger bodies. It includes methods for analyzing motion using numerical solvers, stability investigation of Lagrange points, and the effect of varying mass ratios. Programming tasks and analyses are provided to illustrate behavior in gravitational fields over defined…
Glasgow Green Cycle Club and Zwift
Glasgow Green Cycle Club (GGCC) has been running group rides, races and TTs on Zwift since November 2017, with a high degree of realism for GGCC riders, including the GGCC jersey and bib shorts in every GGCC Zwift event, for everyone worldwide to use.
6Points Challenges and Zwift
6Points Challenges has been running group rides and races on Zwift for several years now, with a high degree of realism for 6Points riders, with the 6Points jersey and bib shorts in every 6Points Zwift event for everyone worldwide to use.
My Coronavirus model post-Pirola
I have updated my Coronavirus model to include an assessment of the potential impact of the new BA.2.86 Pirola variant. The model factors in age-group structures, transmission rates, vaccination phases, and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The model finds that despite reported decreases in Covid-19 cases in the UK, case recording has been high with recent data seeming…
My Coronavirus UK model outcomes as ONS reporting comes to an end
The UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) had just announced that it was ceasing publication of the regular cases and deaths outcomes of the UK Covid-19 pandemic, as of 24th March 2023, and then revised all previously published Covid data. I was able to make global changes to most of my model history, by re-working some…
Official UK Coronavirus reporting ends
Introduction I have continued to run my own Coronavirus model, my recent prior report on February 9th this year having immediately followed the outbreak of the “Kraken” variant, Omicron XBB.1.5, in the UK. This brief post provides my own latest charts from my model, in the light of cessation of the UK Government’s own Covid…
The Kraken Wakes* – Coronavirus
I have continued to improve and run my Coronavirus model daily. The code for the model is now at version 172, and I have added a dataset to represent the variant XBB.1.5, known informally as “Kraken”. The fit of the model to reported deaths is good. I explore in the article the behaviour of Modelled…
How Zwift helps train for 6Points Ibiza and Formentera
Looking back at our 6Points ride to the 6 Compass points of both Formentera and Ibiza over the weekend of 4/5/6th October
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A rambling mind 