Cambridge Conversations and model refinement

In my post a few days ago at https://www.briansutton.uk/?p=1536, I mentioned that the webinar I reported there was to be released on YouTube this week, and it is now available. It is VERY much worth 40 minutes of your time to take a look. It’s at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYcA7e1S3XU

UK Coronavirus Modelling – match to data

Even having explored Prof. Alex Visscher’s published MatLab code for a week or two now, with UK data, even I am surprised at how well the model is matching up to published UK data so far (on April 18th 2020). I have reported my previous work a couple of times, once relating to the modellingContinue reading “UK Coronavirus Modelling – match to data”

Cambridge conversations 17th April 2020 – exit strategy?

As an alumnus, I had the opportunity today (with 2000 other people in over 60 countries) to attend a Cambridge University webinar on the current pandemic crisis. It was moderated by Chris Smith, a consultant medical virologist and lecturer at Cambridge (and a presenter on https://www.thenakedscientists.com/ where more about this event will be found). TheContinue reading “Cambridge conversations 17th April 2020 – exit strategy?”

Making a little progress with a Covid-19 model and real data

In my research on appropriate (available and feasible (for me)) modelling tools for epidemics, I discovered this paper by Prof. Alex de Visscher (to be called Alex hereafter). He has been incredibly helpful. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.08824.pdf Thanks to Alex including the MatLab code (a maths package I have used before) in the paper, and also a detailedContinue reading “Making a little progress with a Covid-19 model and real data”

The SIR model and importance of the R0 Reproductive Number

In the recent daily UK Government presentations, the R0 Reproductive Number has been mentioned a few times, and with good reason. Its value is as a commonly accepted measure of the propensity of an infectious disease outbreak to become an epidemic. It turns out to be a relatively simple number to define, although working backContinue reading “The SIR model and importance of the R0 Reproductive Number”

The Coronavirus briefing 2nd April 2020

This is an extract from the Government daily Coronavirus briefing on 2nd April 2020, led by Matt Hancock, with Professor Stephen Powis, Medical Director of the NHS in England. In this clip, Prof. Powis states that he thinks there is “early academic evidence” that the R0 “Reproduction Number”, (what he calls the transmission rate) reflectingContinue reading “The Coronavirus briefing 2nd April 2020”

Some progress with the Gillespie SIR model

In the news today (coincident with my current work on this post) we can see how important the measures taken through social distancing, self-isolation and (partial) lockdown are to reducing the rate of infections. So far, the SHTM researchers say “…the R0 could be cut…” and “likely lead to a substantial impact and decline…” –Continue reading “Some progress with the Gillespie SIR model”

Coronavirus modelling work reported by the BBC

This article by the BBC’s Rachel Schraer explores the modelling for the progression of the Coronavirus Covid-19. In the article we see some graphs showing epidemic growth rates, and in particular this one showing infection rate dependency on how many one individual infects in a given period. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111 This chart led me to look intoContinue reading “Coronavirus modelling work reported by the BBC”

Coronavirus – forecasting numbers

A few people might have seen the Johns Hopkins University Medical School chart on Covid-19 infection rates in different countries. They have produced many different outputs, some of them interactive world incidence models – see https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. This particular chart usefully compares some various national growth rates with straight lines representing different periods over which theContinue reading “Coronavirus – forecasting numbers”

Coronavirus modelling – GLEAMviz15

Here’s the kind of stuff that the Covid-19 modellers will be doing. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep46076.pdf I have downloaded GleamViz, http://www.gleamviz.org/simulator/client/, and it is quite complicated to set up (I used to have a little Windows app called Wildfire that just needed a few numbers to get a pictorial progression of life/recovery/death from the disease, depending on infectivity,Continue reading “Coronavirus modelling – GLEAMviz15”