Alex de Visscher – A rambling mind

A brief look at model sensitivities to lockdown easing as we prepare for winter

Model and reported UK deaths and cases from Feb 1st to Sep 21st with 4 easings and 1 increase after the initial lockdown effectiveness of 84.3%, as shown on the charts

The UK Government has just announced some reversals of the current lockdown easing, and so before I model the additional interventions announced today, I want to illustrate quickly the behaviour of the model in response to changing the effectiveness of current interventions, refecting the easings that have already been made, and also to highlight the sensitivity of the forecasts of case and death rates to the influence of lockdown effectiveness.