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13.52.14https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/latex.pnglatexhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-37.pngimagehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-36.pngimagehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-35.pngimagehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-34.pngimagehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-33.pngimage2025-10-27T11:59:58+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2023/10/12/my-coronavirus-model-post-pirola/2025-09-17T20:10:35+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2025/03/28/my-model-calculations-for-covid-19-cases-for-an-earlier-uk-lockdown-20250325-review/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/image-1.pngimagehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/chart-of-covid-19-presence-in-the-uk.pngchart-of-covid-19-presence-in-the-ukhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/chart-of-covid-presence-uk.pngchart-of-covid-presence-ukhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/image.pngimagehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/screenshot-2025-03-20-at-16.37.39.pngScreenshot 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19.47.582025-05-21T11:12:11+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/11/10/make-america-well-again/2025-04-25T22:07:58+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/05/24/why-the-uk-government-is-worried-about-the-india-variant/2025-04-25T22:06:16+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/05/14/what-if-uk-lockdown-had-been-2-weeks-earlier/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/abf28-screenshot-2020-05-15-at-13.43.38_worldometer_uk_deaths.pngScreenshot-2020-05-15-at-13.43.38_Worldometer_UK_deathshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/cb3fd-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-22.03.10.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-22.03.10https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/34fea-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.20.18.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.20.18https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/745fd-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.19.10.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.19.10https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/cd4ad-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.18.57.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.18.57https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/93190-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.18.29.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.18.29https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/d01bb-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.18.16.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-21.18.16https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/12bc8-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-17.11.50.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-17.11.50https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/caea4-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-16.44.41.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-16.44.41https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/85acb-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-16.44.25.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-16.44.252025-04-04T14:36:54+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/09/07/notes-for-twitter-group/2025-03-31T12:32:35+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/04/02/some-progress-with-the-gillespie-sir-model/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4a81d-image.pngimagehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/5303d-screenshot-2020-04-02-at-15.17.25.pngScreenshot-2020-04-02-at-15.17.25https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/301b6-screenshot-2020-04-02-at-15.17.46.pngScreenshot-2020-04-02-at-15.17.46https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/6af78-img_0666-1-scaled-1.jpegIMG_0666-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/461aa-img_0666-scaled-1.jpegIMG_0666https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/221ec-screenshot-2020-04-02-at-13.39.07.pngScreenshot-2020-04-02-at-13.39.07https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/204a8-screenshot-2020-04-02-at-13.20.20.pngScreenshot-2020-04-02-at-13.20.20https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/750bc-screenshot-2020-03-31-at-09.35.37.pngScreenshot-2020-03-31-at-09.35.372025-03-31T12:20:58+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/04/08/the-sir-model-and-importance-of-the-ro-reproductive-number/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/477ab-solving-logx-rx-1-for-a-family-of-r-values.pngSolving log(x) = R(x-1) for a family of R valuesSolving log(x) = R(x-1) for a family of R values2025-03-31T12:19:51+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/04/14/making-a-little-progress-with-a-covid-19-model-and-real-data/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/8017c-screenshot-2020-04-16-at-17.05.14.pngScreenshot-2020-04-16-at-17.05.14The Alex de Visscher 7 compartment model flowchart. Mechanism of the COVID-19 model. U = uninfected, I = infected, S = sick, SS = seriously sick, D = dead, B = better, R = recovered; r1, etc., are rates of transition from one state to another (people per day)https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/36d56-img_9217_crop.jpgIMG_9217_crophttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/bf702-img_9217-1.pngIMG_9217-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/0036b-img_9217.pngIMG_9217https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/7f93e-screenshot-2020-04-14-at-14.06.53.pngScreenshot-2020-04-14-at-14.06.53https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/efeeb-screenshot-2020-04-05-at-16.11.48.pngScreenshot-2020-04-05-at-16.11.48https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/47634-screenshot-2020-04-05-at-16.11.03.pngScreenshot-2020-04-05-at-16.11.03https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/9a6ac-screenshot-2020-04-05-at-16.10.04.pngScreenshot-2020-04-05-at-16.10.04https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/caa1a-screenshot-2020-04-05-at-16.09.54.pngScreenshot-2020-04-05-at-16.09.542025-03-31T12:19:00+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/04/17/cambridge-conversations-17th-april-2020/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ac591-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.18.48-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.18.48https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/94370-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.17.33-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.17.33https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/497a5-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.15.56-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.15.56https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4c872-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.15.08-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.15.08https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2d311-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.13.41-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.13.41https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/f5032-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.12.27-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.12.27https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/80d24-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.11.21-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.11.21https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/9f559-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.10.22-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.10.22https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/749bc-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.09.30-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.09.30Cyclical pandemic behaviourhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/d8c4c-screenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.09.02-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-04-17-at-12.09.022025-03-31T12:18:46+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/04/22/cambridge-conversations-and-model-refinement/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b6c08-screenshot-2020-04-23-at-14.42.25.pngScreenshot-2020-04-23-at-14.42.25https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/33722-screenshot-2020-04-23-at-14.42.13.pngScreenshot-2020-04-23-at-14.42.13https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/bd9b5-screenshot-2020-04-22-at-10.08.05.pngScreenshot-2020-04-22-at-10.08.05https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4bc7b-screenshot-2020-04-22-at-10.06.51.pngScreenshot-2020-04-22-at-10.06.51https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/c38c7-screenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.54.28.pngScreenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.54.28https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/1bd5c-screenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.54.13.pngScreenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.54.13https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2ce12-screenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.46.08.pngScreenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.46.08https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/e0ae2-screenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.45.47.pngScreenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.45.47https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/44ee6-screenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.45.07.pngScreenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.45.07https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/8e75d-screenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.44.53.pngScreenshot-2020-04-22-at-09.44.532025-03-31T12:18:29+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/05/15/cambridge-conversations-may-14th-2020/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/130d6-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.25.07.jpgModels and decision makingModels and decision makinghttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/d1f36-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.24.15.jpgScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.24.15https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/d7158-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.23.13.jpgScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.23.13https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ddc46-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.22.40.jpgScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.22.40https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/3c2d4-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.20.52.jpgScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.20.52https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/48296-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.19.47.jpgScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.19.47https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/cf553-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.22.40-1.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.22.40-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/55c0f-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.20.52-1.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.20.52-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/59dd2-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.22.40.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.22.40https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/acf5d-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.20.52.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.20.522025-03-31T12:18:05+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/05/20/cambridge-conversation-14th-may-2020-and-michael-levitts-analysis-of-euro-data/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/cda1d-screenshot-2020-05-20-at-15.47.42.pngUnHerd interview with Prof. Michael LevittUnHerd interview with Prof. Michael Levitt2025-03-31T12:17:37+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/05/29/michael-levitts-analysis-of-european-covid-19-data/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/551b5-screenshot-2020-05-28-at-09.45.26.pngScreenshot-2020-05-28-at-09.45.26https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/14066-screenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.12.51-1.pngScreenshot-2020-05-14-at-15.12.51-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/e45a1-image-4.pngimage-4https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/75fb3-image-3.pngimage-3https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/64444-image-2.pngimage-2https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/70956-screenshot-2020-05-29-at-14.31.46.pngScreenshot-2020-05-29-at-14.31.46https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b4461-screenshot-2020-05-29-at-14.24.36.pngScreenshot-2020-05-29-at-14.24.36https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/29e6b-screenshot-2020-05-29-at-14.17.48.pngScreenshot-2020-05-29-at-14.17.48https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/fc04f-image-1.pngimage-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4c096-screenshot-2020-05-29-at-13.30.05.pngScreenshot-2020-05-29-at-13.30.052025-03-31T12:17:07+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/07/18/mechanistic-and-curve-fitting-uk-modelling-comparison/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/f10c7-screenshot-2020-07-16-at-17.20.22-1.pngScreenshot-2020-07-16-at-17.20.22-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b5afe-screenshot-2020-07-16-at-17.00.47-1.pngScreenshot-2020-07-16-at-17.00.47-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/3b6ac-screenshot-2020-07-16-at-17.00.28-1.pngScreenshot-2020-07-16-at-17.00.28-12025-03-31T12:16:04+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/07/31/the-effect-of-lockdown-easing-in-the-uk/2025-03-31T12:15:36+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/08/04/model-update-for-uk-lockdown-easing-points/2025-03-31T12:15:16+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/08/14/model-update-following-uk-revision-of-covid-19-deaths-reporting/2025-03-31T12:15:01+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/09/02/sars-cov-2-modelling-situation-report/2025-03-31T12:13:21+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/09/22/a-brief-look-at-model-sensitivities-to-lockdown-easing-as-we-prepare-for-winter/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/eix84zfxgaeclpm_age-specific-ifr-estimates.jpegEiX84ZFXgAEClPM_Age specific IFR estimatesAge-specific IFR estimateshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/contact-reporting_kucharski.jpegcontact-reporting_KucharskiContact mixing between age groups calibrated by contacting and contacted age groupshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/img_9947_crop-1.pngIMG_9947_cropConfirmed Coronavirus cases in England by age group, late August 20202025-03-31T12:12:52+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/10/21/wheres-the-exit/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/screenshot-2020-10-21-at-12.05.43.pngScreenshot 2020-10-21 at 12.05.43Fig. 7. Plots of epidemic curves and cumulative infections for different values oft0. These plots show the dramatic effect that the start time of an epidemic (t0) can have on its progression in a periodic environment given by the SIR model (2.1) with initial conditions (2.2), where I0=1 and N=107. From the plots in a and c we observe that when t0=30, vaccination reduced both the peak size and the peak time although there is not much delay in the peak time. However, plots in b and d show that, although the size of the first epidemic peak is reduced, a second (and higher) peak is also generated. More significantly, the final epidemic size is increased, showing the sensitivity of the behaviors of the epidemic to t0https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/screenshot-2020-10-21-at-11.58.00.pngScreenshot 2020-10-21 at 11.58.00https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/screenshot-2020-10-21-at-11.56.00.pngScreenshot 2020-10-21 at 11.56.00https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/screenshot-2020-10-21-at-11.54.53.pngScreenshot 2020-10-21 at 11.54.53https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/figure_11_uk_20201016-2005.pngfigure_11_UK_20201016-2005Chart 11 showing the effect on cumulative and daily UK model and reported deaths and cases of a 2-week circuit-breaker measure on October 19th2025-03-31T12:12:09+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/10/29/model-update-immunity-and-cyclicity/2025-03-31T12:11:55+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/11/25/modelling-of-vaccine-strategies/2025-03-31T12:11:26+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/12/02/the-end-of-the-beginning/2025-03-31T12:11:08+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/12/11/thanksgiving-lessons-for-christmas-and-new-year/2025-03-31T12:10:54+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/12/23/exploring-the-possible-impact-of-the-new-variant-coronavirus/2025-03-31T12:10:36+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/02/12/npis-variants-and-vaccine-models/2025-03-31T12:10:18+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/04/14/tuning-the-age-and-vulnerability-model/2025-03-31T12:10:02+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/04/23/tracking-uk-npis-vaccines-and-variants/2025-03-31T12:09:46+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/06/01/what-are-government-advisers-seeing/2025-03-31T12:08:17+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/06/06/delta-variant-impact-on-june-21st-easing-delay-or-reduce/2025-03-31T12:07:54+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/09/03/freedom-day-vaccination-and-delta-variant/2025-03-31T12:07:35+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/09/11/the-sir-model-and-implications-of-the-r0-reproduction-number-in-the-delta-variant-environment/2025-03-31T12:07:07+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/10/13/the-uk-select-committees-report-into-uk-government-covid-failures/2025-03-31T12:06:48+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/10/19/booster-jab-matters/2025-03-31T12:06:04+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/11/08/pandemic-modelling-review/2025-03-31T12:05:38+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/12/10/the-nu-xi-of-omicron-pandemic-mutations/2025-03-31T12:04:54+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/12/19/omicron-modelling-update/2025-03-31T12:03:44+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2022/01/03/a-first-2022-omicron-update/2025-03-31T12:03:25+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2022/02/21/omicron-ba-2-and-vaccination-for-5-11-year-olds/2025-03-31T12:02:18+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2022/04/21/they-think-its-all-over-but-it-isnt/2025-03-31T12:01:42+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2022/05/06/declining-omicron-cases-but-increasing-deaths/2025-03-31T12:01:14+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2022/07/17/omicron-continues-to-surprise/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screenshot-2022-07-18-at-12.59.57.pngscreenshot-2022-07-18-at-12.59.57Chart 318 Detail for scenario UK_1196, showing the temporary divergence between reported Deaths and Active Case rates between mid-March and mid-May 2022https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screenshot-2022-07-17-at-19.34.23.pngscreenshot-2022-07-17-at-19.34.23Chart 318 for scenario UK_1196 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = -79.64%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.2 and BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 16th July 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.51.48-1.pngscreenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.51.48-1Chart 318 for scenario UK_1089 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = -39.82%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA.4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.2 and BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 16th July 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.51.48.pngscreenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.51.48Chart 318 for scenario UK_1089 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = -39.82%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA.4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.2 and BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 16th July 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.50.33.pngscreenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.50.33Chart 318 for scenario UK_1088 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = 0%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.2 and BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 16th July 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.53.41-1.pngscreenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.53.41-1Chart 318 for scenario UK_1091 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = 0%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 16th July 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.52.44.pngscreenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.52.44Chart 318 for scenario UK_1090 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = -39.82%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 and 2 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 16th July 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.53.41.pngscreenshot-2022-07-17-at-15.53.41Chart 318 for scenario UK_1091 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = 0%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 19th April 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/figure_318_uk_1090_20220717-1409_codebase-170.pngfigure_318_uk_1090_20220717-1409_codebase-170Chart 318 for scenario UK_1090 with adult vaccinations, and vacs for 5-11 year-olds from April 1st 2022. 24th February NPI reduction = -39.82%. Omicron BA.1 transmission k11 = 6, BA.2 k11 = 8, BA4-5 transmission k11=11. k2hl = 5.1. All Omicron var_eff = 25/50/70%. Omicron BA.1 and 2 fSS=3% and fmort=1.05%. Omicron BA.4-5 fSS=10% and fmort=1.5%. Model outcomes to December 3rd 2023. Reported active cases and deaths to 16 July 2022. Serious cases for 6/7 variants.2025-03-31T12:00:50+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2023/02/09/the-kraken-wakes/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uk_1246-screenshot-2023-02-08-at-20.05.05-1.pnguk_1246-screenshot-2023-02-08-at-20.05.05-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uk_1245_screenshot-2023-02-08-at-20.08.40-1.pnguk_1245_screenshot-2023-02-08-at-20.08.40-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uk_1244_screenshot-2023-02-08-at-14.49.40-1.pnguk_1244_screenshot-2023-02-08-at-14.49.40-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uk_1243_screenshot-2023-02-08-at-14.50.55-1.pnguk_1243_screenshot-2023-02-08-at-14.50.55-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/figure_318_uk_1246_20230208-1350_codebase-172-1.pngfigure_318_uk_1246_20230208-1350_codebase-172-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/figure_318_uk_1245_20230208-1349_codebase-172-1.pngfigure_318_uk_1245_20230208-1349_codebase-172-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/figure_318_uk_1244_20230208-1352_codebase-172-1.pngfigure_318_uk_1244_20230208-1352_codebase-172-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/figure_318_uk_1243_20230208-1353_codebase-172-1.pngfigure_318_uk_1243_20230208-1353_codebase-172-12025-03-31T12:00:06+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/05/25/my-model-calculations-about-an-earlier-uk-lockdown/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/62068-screenshot-2020-05-29-at-23.26.59.pngChart 6 UK cases reported vs. model log y-axis 9th March lockdown, 84% effectivenessChart 6 UK cases reported vs. model log y-axis 9th March lockdown, 84% effectivenesshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/8d6bf-screenshot-2020-05-29-at-23.22.01.pngChart 6 UK cases reported vs. model log y-axis 9th March vs. 23rd March lockdown, 84% effectivenessChart 6 UK cases reported vs. model log y-axis 9th March vs. 23rd March lockdown, 84% effectivenesshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/c4780-screenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.45.21-1000x700_blue.jpgChart 6 UK cases reported vs. model log y-axis 9th March lockdown, 84% effectivenessChart 6 UK cases reported vs. model log y-axis 9th March lockdown, 84% effectivenesshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/47401-screenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.46.18.pngScreenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.46.18https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/19935-screenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.45.21.pngComparison of modelled with reported case numbers for 9th March to reportedComparison of modelled with reported case numbers for 9th March to reportedhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/6af2b-screenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.36.52.pngScreenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.36.52https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/37b0c-screenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.35.37.pngScreenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.35.37https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/42148-screenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.07.18.pngScreenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.07.18https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4415a-screenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.06.15.pngScreenshot-2020-05-25-at-17.06.152025-03-28T20:25:57+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/06/28/some-thoughts-on-the-current-uk-coronavirus-position/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/de92b-image-2.pngimage-2Projected effectiveness of Covid-19 mitigation strategies, in relation to the utilisation of critical care (ICU) bedshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/29cfa-image-1.pngimage-1The potentially cyclical caseload from Covid-19, with interventions and relaxations applied as ICU bed demand changeshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/f5a80-image.pngimagehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/906b4-screenshot-2020-07-06-at-10.09.28.pngScreenshot-2020-07-06-at-10.09.28The potentially cyclical caseload from Covid-19, with interventions and relaxations applied as ICU bed demand changeshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/95bd9-fauci-quote-20200628-trim.jpgFauci-quote-20200628-trimhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/e9365-screenshot-2020-07-02-at-13.21.19.pngScreenshot-2020-07-02-at-13.21.19https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/00c06-screenshot-2020-07-02-at-13.16.20.pngScreenshot-2020-07-02-at-13.16.20https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/910a2-screenshot-2020-06-29-at-10.29.49-1.pngScreenshot 2020-06-29 at 10.29.49Model vs. reported deaths, to June 28th 2020https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/62e99-screenshot-2020-06-29-at-10.28.28-1.pngScreenshot 2020-06-29 at 10.28.28Model vs. reported deaths, cumulative and daily, to Sep 30th 2020https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/76568-screenshot-2020-06-29-at-10.29.49.pngScreenshot-2020-06-29-at-10.29.492023-12-06T19:24:20+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/06/11/my-coronavirus-model-still-tracking-well/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/7e530-screenshot-2020-06-11-at-17.31.56.pngScreenshot-2020-06-11-at-17.31.56https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/28067-screenshot-2020-06-11-at-16.22.03.pngScreenshot-2020-06-11-at-16.22.03https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/3333a-screenshot-2020-06-11-at-13.32.00.pngdaily and cumulative figures for UK deaths, thankfully slowing down, and also the model forecast to the medium term, to September 30thDaily and cumulative figures for UK deaths, and the model forecast to September 30th2023-12-06T19:16:29+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/07/14/phenomenology-coronavirus-modelling-and-curve-fitting/2023-11-24T21:05:25+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/about-me/2023-11-13T10:50:10+00:00weekly0.6https://brianrsutton.com/about/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/dscf6327.jpgDSCF6327https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/img_6516.jpgimg_65162023-11-13T10:49:39+00:00weekly0.6https://brianrsutton.com/2023/11/09/glasgow-green-cycle-club-and-zwift/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/img_3051.jpegimg_3051https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/screenshot-2023-11-09-at-13.44.34.pngscreenshot-2023-11-09-at-13.44.34https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/img_1311.jpegimg_1311https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/img_1308.jpegimg_1308https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/img_1435.jpegimg_1435https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/img_1307.jpegimg_1307https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/img_1292.jpegimg_1292Glasgow Green Cycle Club GGCC Zwift 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6Points pelotonVisiting the lighthouse at Cap des Salines2022-06-12T16:39:34+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2019/08/24/ride-the-6points-in-ibiza-and-formentera/2022-06-12T16:36:57+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2019/12/05/6points-ibiza-and-formentera/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/1c9d2-formentera-faro-boys-and-girls.jpg6Points meets Formentera Faro lighthouse6Points meets Formentera Faro 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11 showing the effect on cumulative and daily UK model and reported deaths and cases of a 2-week circuit-breaker measure on October 19thhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/figure_11_us_20201009-1239-1.pngfigure_11_US_20201009-1239Chart 11 showing both cumulative and daily US model and reported deaths and caseshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/figure_11_uk_20201009-1251.pngfigure_11_UK_20201009-1251Chart 11 showing both cumulative and daily UK model and reported deaths and caseshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/figure_11_us_20201009-1239.pngfigure_11_US_20201009-1239Chart 11 showing both cumulative and daily US model and reported deaths and caseshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/screenshot-2020-10-09-at-12.52.37.pngScreenshot 2020-10-09 at 12.52.37Chart 11 showing both cumulative and daily UK model and reported deaths and caseshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/screenshot-2020-10-09-at-12.50.13.pngScreenshot 2020-10-09 at 12.50.13Chart 11 showing the effect on cumulative and daily UK model and reported deaths and cases of a 2-week circuit-breaker measure on October 19thhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/figure_11_uk_20201008-2347.pngfigure_11_UK_20201008-2347Chart 11 showing the effect on cumulative and daily UK model and reported deaths and cases of a 2-week circuit-breaker measure on October 19thhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/figure_11_uk_20201008-1614.pngfigure_11_UK_20201008-1614Chart 11 showing both cumulative and daily UK model and reported deaths and caseshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/screenshot-2020-10-08-at-16.25.56.pngScreenshot 2020-10-08 at 16.25.56Model chart showing cumulative and daily UK deaths compared to reported deaths2021-08-30T17:49:18+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/06/18/a-new-look-at-sobremunt-the-hardest-climb-in-mallorca/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/8ed2c-sobremunt-profile-cycle-fiesta.pngsobremunt-profile-cycle-fiestahttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/689ec-screenshot-2019-11-11-at-12.45.23-profile-gcn-clone.jpgScreenshot-2019-11-11-at-12.45.23-profile-GCN-clonehttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/52194-screenshot-2019-11-11-at-12.43.34.pngScreenshot-2019-11-11-at-12.43.34https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/fa47f-screenshot-2020-06-19-at-14.24.11-clone-4-2.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-19-at-14.24.11-clone-4-2https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/a8628-screenshot-2020-06-19-at-14.24.11-clone-4-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-19-at-14.24.11-clone-4-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/f95cf-screenshot-2020-06-19-at-14.24.11-clone-4.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-19-at-14.24.11-clone-4https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/e43cc-screenshot-2020-06-19-at-14.24.11-clone-3.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-19-at-14.24.11-clone-3https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/3533c-screenshot-2020-06-16-at-21.00.15-1mb-scaled-1.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-16-at-21.00.15-1Mbhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/6daf0-screenshot-2020-06-18-at-15.45.47.pngScreenshot-2020-06-18-at-15.45.47https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4f1c9-screenshot-2020-06-18-at-15.44.59.pngScreenshot-2020-06-18-at-15.44.592021-08-04T16:57:39+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2019/10/21/can-torrat-and-galilea-with-philip/2021-08-04T14:04:19+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2019/11/16/exploring-mallorca-by-bike/2021-07-23T15:35:32+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2019/10/19/sobremunt-the-hardest-climb-in-mallorca/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b5c18-gcn-brs-sobremunt-summit.jpgGCN-BRS-Sobremunt-summit2021-05-07T20:12:16+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/01/04/cala-tuent-and-es-vergeret/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/7ac82-dcp_0342.jpegDCP_0342https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/f7b13-img_8248.jpegIMG_8248https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/62ad9-30082008094.jpeg30082008094https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/de090-30082008093.jpeg30082008093https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/c1ccb-30082008092.jpeg30082008092https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/7580a-30082008091.jpeg30082008091https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/08d49-30082008090.jpeg30082008090https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4f0fa-30082008089.jpeg30082008089https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/acdb2-30082008088.jpeg30082008088https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/17fc7-30082008087.jpeg300820080872021-04-14T20:35:28+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/03/26/age-and-vulnerability-related-coronavirus-modelling/2021-03-31T10:21:18+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/01/21/exploring-the-impact-of-multiple-coronavirus-variants/2021-01-25T15:59:59+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2021/01/05/concurrent-coronavirus-two-variant-modelling/2021-01-13T13:22:41+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/blog/2020-09-04T11:38:35+00:00weekly0.6https://brianrsutton.com/2020/07/21/example-post-3/2020-07-21T16:48:57+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/07/21/example-post-2/2020-07-21T16:48:57+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/07/21/example-post/2020-07-21T16:48:57+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/07/06/coronavirus-modelling-update/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4ad9b-img_7118_cropped-1mb-1-scaled-1.jpgIMG_7118_cropped-1Mb-1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/9ca6e-img_7118_cropped-1mb-scaled-1.jpgIMG_7118_cropped-1Mbhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/30238-img_7575_decreased_7day_death_rate.jpgIMG_7575_decreased_7day_death_rateThe death rate trend can be seen in the daily and 7-day average trend chartshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b2c07-img_7574_decreased_daily_death_rate.jpgIMG_7574_decreased_daily_death_rateThe death rate trend can be seen in the daily and 7-day average trend chartshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/a0ff2-img_7572_increased_deaths.jpgIMG_7572_increased_deathshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/20794-img_7571_crop_mri.jpgIMG_7571_crop_MRIhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/98d3e-img_7118-scaled-1.jpegIMG_7118Covid deaths and infections level out in weekly figureshttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4752a-screenshot-2020-07-06-at-12.37.15-1.pngScreenshot-2020-07-06-at-12.37.15-1§2020-07-06T12:24:08+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/06/22/the-surrey-hills-in-the-2019-prudential-ridelondon-100/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/e1516-screenshot-2020-06-22-at-16.26.53-dist-annotated2.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-22-at-16.26.53-dist-annotated2https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/11c18-screenshot-2020-06-22-at-16.27.06-time-annotated2.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-22-at-16.27.06-time-annotated2https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/1c415-5712_20190804_114341_170933541_original-2mb_16x9-scaled-1.jpg5712_20190804_114341_170933541_original 2mb_16x9Climbing Box Hill in the 2019 Prudential RideLondon 100https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b2bde-screenshot-2020-06-22-at-16.26.53-dist-annotated.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-22-at-16.26.53-dist-annotatedhttps://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/9e664-screenshot-2020-06-22-at-16.27.06-time-annotated.jpgScreenshot-2020-06-22-at-16.27.06-time-annotated2020-06-22T16:19:12+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/06/02/current-coronavirus-model-forecast-and-next-steps/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/4920a-screenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.09.54.pngScreenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.09.54https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/f4e5a-screenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.09.37.pngReported Deaths vs. Modelled deaths, both cumulative and daily,Reported Deaths vs. Modelled deaths, both cumulative and daily, https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/867c3-screenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.09.09.pngScreenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.09.09https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/46aee-screenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.08.37.pngScreenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.08.37https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/26ca2-screenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.08.14.pngScreenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.08.14https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/619bb-screenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.08.01.pngScreenshot-2020-06-03-at-18.08.01https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/08ab8-screenshot-2020-06-02-at-18.03.34.pngScreenshot-2020-06-02-at-18.03.34https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/1dc54-screenshot-2020-06-02-at-17.40.33.pngScreenshot-2020-06-02-at-17.40.33https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/95bfb-screenshot-2020-06-02-at-17.40.15.pngReported Deaths vs. Modelled deaths, both cumulative and daily,Reported Deaths vs. Modelled deaths, both cumulative and daily, https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/84423-screenshot-2020-06-02-at-17.38.55.pngScreenshot-2020-06-02-at-17.38.552020-06-02T22:54:43+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/05/24/6points-mallorca-zwift-training-ride-led-by-dame-sarah-storey/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b65d0-6-points-feed-option-2_sarah-fleury-20200522.jpgSarah Storey & Fleury Poppet StoopsSarah Storey & Fleury Poppet Stoops2020-05-24T21:58:51+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/05/18/another-perspective-on-coronavirus-prof-michael-levitt/2020-05-18T18:30:27+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/05/08/model-update-for-the-latest-coronavirus-numbers/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/6f598-screenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.24.52.pngScreenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.24.52https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b2f78-screenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.24.34.pngScreenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.24.34https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/85450-screenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.24.20.pngScreenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.24.20https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/7ff9d-screenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.24.03.pngScreenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.24.03https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/48141-screenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.17.46.pngScreenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.17.46https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/e602f-screenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.17.03.pngScreenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.17.03https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/51a2d-screenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.16.45.pngScreenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.16.45https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/b6cc1-screenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.16.22.pngScreenshot-2020-05-08-at-17.16.222020-05-24T22:51:22+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2020/04/30/re-modelling-after-changes-to-uk-coronavirus-data-collection-and-reporting/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/c30dd-screenshot-2020-04-30-at-15.53.42.pngScreenshot-2020-04-30-at-15.53.42https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/3b48d-screenshot-2020-04-30-at-15.53.25.pngScreenshot-2020-04-30-at-15.53.25https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/e5d2d-screenshot-2020-04-30-at-15.11.44.pngModel 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#2https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ab58b-screenshot-2017-03-25-10.49.21.pngScreenshot 2017-03-25 10.49.21Excel import dialog #1https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/fb536-screenshot-2017-03-25-10.49.08.pngScreenshot 2017-03-25 10.49.08Excel import dialog #2https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/a1b87-screenshot-2017-03-25-10.48.41.pngScreenshot 2017-03-25 10.48.41Excel import dialog #32017-03-25T12:04:09+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/03/22/bicycle-helmets-again/2017-03-22T13:17:43+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/03/22/zwift-off-piste-course-choices/2017-03-22T09:17:32+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/02/14/avalanche-matters/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/3934f-bulletin-neige-et-avalanches-haute-tarentaise-pour-le-13-02-2017_1_0.pngBulletin-neige-et-avalanches-HAUTE-TARENTAISE-pour-le-13-02-2017_1_0Météo France’s official avalanche 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screenshot in Textwrangler of a .fit file2017-02-08T20:01:01+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/02/08/recovering-from-lost-turbo-rides-in-zwift/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/f60a9-screenshot-2017-02-08-19.30.59.pngScreenshot 2017-02-08 19.30.59https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ccd99-screenshot-2017-02-08-19.30.47.pngScreenshot 2017-02-08 19.30.47Apps in my iPhone as viewed from iMazing2017-02-08T19:35:41+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/02/05/ant-dongles-for-turbo-training/2017-02-05T16:58:35+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/02/05/the-brachistochrone-problem/2017-02-05T16:13:36+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/02/05/the-tacx-concept-of-virtual-speed/2017-02-05T16:10:40+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/02/05/zwifts-difficulty-setting/2017-02-05T16:03:02+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2017/02/05/some-tacx-zwift-and-turbo-training-learnings/2017-02-05T15:51:39+00:00monthlyhttps://brianrsutton.com/2016/10/07/a-visit-to-the-westerham-cyclery/https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/69711-img_6257.jpgimg_6257https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/500c8-img_6256.jpgimg_6256https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/24aa0-img_6255.jpgimg_6255https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/dedc6-img_6254.jpgimg_6254https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/9048b-img_6251.jpgimg_6251https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/c07e3-img_6248.jpgimg_6248https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/d8698-img_6247.jpgimg_6247https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/911d8-img_6246.jpgimg_6246https://brianrsutton.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/7688b-img_6245.jpgimg_6245My first helping of bread 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