Search Results for “Coronavirus” – Page 6

Mechanistic and curve-fitting UK modelling comparison

Cumulative, daily and 7-day average model UK deaths, 83%, 6th March - 30th Sep, with the daily ratio of cumulative deaths, and the H(t) function, the natural logarithm of that ratio, and the negative natural log of H(t)

I thought it would be useful, at least for my understanding, to apply a curve-fitting approach to some of the UK reported data, and also to my model forecast based on that data.

Michael Levitt’s analysis of European Covid-19 data

Deaths graphs from EurMoMo allow the calculation of Excess deaths

I promised in an earlier blog post to present Prof. Michael Levitt’s analysis of Covid-19 data published on the EuroMoMo site for European health data over the last few years. His finding is that COVID19 is similar to flu only in total and in age range excess mortality. Flu is a different virus, has a safe vaccine & is much less a threat to heroic medical professionals.

My model calculations for Covid-19 cases for an earlier UK lockdown

Chart 6 UK cases reported vs. model log y-axis 9th March lockdown, 84% effectiveness

This post presents the two case number comparisons charts for the 9th March and 23rd March lockdown dates (I had covered the death data in more detail in my previous post on this topic).

Cambridge Conversation 14th May 2020, and Michael Levitt’s analysis of Euro data

UnHerd interview with Prof. Michael Levitt

I covered the May 14th Cambridge Conversation in my blog post last week, and promised to make available the YouTube link for it when uploaded. It is now on the University of Cambridge channel.

Cambridge Conversations May 14th 2020 – reading data and the place of modelling

Cambridge Conversations May 14th 2020, the second Cambridge Conversations webinar on Covid-19, featuring Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter of Churchill College, and Professor Mike Hulme, Professor of Human Geography and Fellow of Pembroke College.

What if UK lockdown had been 2 weeks earlier?

This article explores some of the possible outcomes of assumed earlier lockdown measures (March 9th example) by UK in its response to the Coronavirus pandemic.

Making a little progress with a Covid-19 model and real data

In my research on appropriate (available and feasible (for me)) modelling tools for epidemics, I discovered this paper by Prof. Alex de Visscher (to be called Alex hereafter). He has been incredibly helpful. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.08824.pdf Thanks to Alex including the MatLab code (a maths package I have used before) in the paper, and also a detailedContinue reading “Making a little progress with a Covid-19 model and real data”

Some progress with the Gillespie SIR model

In the news today (coincident with my current work on this post) we can see how important the measures taken through social distancing, self-isolation and (partial) lockdown are to reducing the rate of infections. So far, the SHTM researchers say “…the R0 could be cut…” and “likely lead to a substantial impact and decline…” –Continue reading “Some progress with the Gillespie SIR model”