As reported in my previous post, there has been a gradual reduction in the rate of decline of cases and deaths in the UK relative to my model forecasts. This decline had already been noted, as I reported before, by The Office for National Statistics and their research partners, the University of Oxford, and reported on the ONS website.
I had adjusted the original lockdown effectiveness in my model (from 23rd March) to reflect this emerging change, but as the model had been predicting correct behaviour up until mid to late May, I will present here the original model forecasts compared to the current reported deaths trend.
I promised in an earlier blog post to present Prof. Michael Levitt’s analysis of Covid-19 data published on the EuroMoMo site for European health data over the last few years. His finding is that COVID19 is similar to flu only in total and in age range excess mortality. Flu is a different virus, has a safe vaccine & is much less a threat to heroic medical professionals.
Cambridge Conversations May 14th 2020, the second Cambridge Conversations webinar on Covid-19, featuring Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter of Churchill College, and Professor Mike Hulme, Professor of Human Geography and Fellow of Pembroke College.
In the news today (coincident with my current work on this post) we can see how important the measures taken through social distancing, self-isolation and (partial) lockdown are to reducing the rate of infections. So far, the SHTM researchers say “…the R0 could be cut…” and “likely lead to a substantial impact and decline…” –Continue reading “Some progress with the Gillespie SIR model”